Sports betting has always been centered around the idea of predicting winners, but experienced bettors know that backing the underdog can often be the smarter play. While favorites are expected to win more often, sportsbooks set odds in a way that can sometimes overvalue them, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to find value in underdogs.
Historically, underdogs have been responsible for some of the biggest upsets in sports. In the NFL, teams with the longest preseason odds to win the Super Bowl have occasionally shocked the world, such as the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who opened at 150-1 before completing a Cinderella season. In college basketball, the unpredictability of March Madness has led to stunning results, with lower-seeded teams frequently making deep tournament runs. These examples highlight why underdog betting remains a key strategy for bettors looking for the best possible returns.
When To Bet On Underdogs In Different Sports
Underdog betting opportunities exist across all major sports, but the key is knowing when the odds offer true value. Here’s how underdog betting plays out in different sports:
NFL: The Power Of The Point Spread
The NFL is one of the best leagues for underdog betting, particularly when it comes to point spreads. Over the last decade, underdogs have covered the spread at a higher rate than favorites, making them an attractive option for spread bettors.
- Home underdogs have historically performed well, as public bettors tend to overvalue road favorites.
- Divisional matchups often present strong underdog opportunities since teams know each other well and games tend to be more competitive.
- Underdogs getting 7 or more points have covered the spread at a profitable rate in recent years, showing that sportsbooks can sometimes inflate lines on heavy favorites.
NBA: Spotting The Right Situations
The NBA presents unique challenges for underdog betting, as individual player performances can drastically shift game outcomes. However, there are still valuable opportunities to back the long shot.
- Rested underdogs often have an edge when facing teams on back-to-back games, as fatigue can impact performance.
- Road underdogs tend to be undervalued, especially when playing against teams on long home stands who may lack motivation.
- In playoff series, teams that lose the first game as an underdog often make strong adjustments, creating good value in Game 2.
MLB: The Finest Sport For Underdog Betting
Baseball is widely regarded as the best sport for betting underdogs because of its high variance. Even the worst MLB teams win about 40% of their games, meaning that long-shot bets can pay off frequently.
- Starting pitchers greatly influence odds, but sportsbooks often overadjust when elite pitchers are on the mound, creating value on the opposing team.
- Betting on underdogs in divisional games can be profitable, as teams face each other frequently and even weaker teams can pull off upsets.
- In baseball, +150 and higher underdogs have consistently provided strong returns over large sample sizes.
College Football And Basketball: The Unpredictability Factor
College sports create massive betting opportunities for underdogs due to the sheer number of games and the public’s tendency to favor big-name schools.
- In college football, heavy underdogs of +20 points or more cover the spread at a surprising rate, as favorites often pull their starters late in games.
- March Madness has long been a playground for underdog bettors, with lower-seeded teams regularly upsetting higher seeds in the first two rounds.
- Betting against public perception is key in college sports, as the betting market often inflates lines on well-known teams.
Why Bet105 Is The Finest Sportsbook For Underdog Betting
For bettors looking to maximize profits with underdog betting, choosing the right sportsbook is just as important as picking the right teams. bet105 is the ultimate crypto sportsbook for underdog bettors because of its reduced juice model, which allows players to get better odds on every bet. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that apply -110 standard pricing, bet105 offers -105 lines, meaning bettors risk less to win more.
In addition, bet105 provides:
- No limits on winning players, making it a sharp-friendly sportsbook for professional bettors.
- Fast and secure crypto withdrawals, allowing for quick access to winnings.
- A wide range of betting markets, including deep coverage of underdog-friendly leagues like MLB and NCAA football/basketball.
For sharp bettors who rely on long-term profitability, betting on underdogs at bet105 ensures the best possible value.
Final Thoughts
While betting on favorites may seem like the safer option, underdog betting is where sharp bettors find the most value. By identifying the right spots in leagues like the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports, bettors can capitalize on inflated odds and mispriced lines. With the right strategy and a sportsbook like bet105 that offers competitive odds, underdog betting can be one of the most profitable approaches in sports wagering.
